What if welcoming refugees could not only offer a lifeline to those in need but also boost a nation’s economy? In Poland, the influx of Ukrainian refugees has had a surprisingly positive impact, contributing billions to the country’s GDP and supporting public finances in ways many might not expect. But how exactly has this migration shaped the Polish economy, and what can other nations learn from this experience? Read on to discover the untold economic benefits of immigration and the lessons we can draw from Poland’s approach.
The Economic Impact of Ukrainian Refugees in Poland
Over the past two years, Ukrainian refugees have made a significant contribution to Poland’s economy. In 2023, their impact on Poland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated to range between 0.7% and 1.1%. According to a study titled “Analysis of the impact of refugees from Ukraine on the economy of Poland” conducted by Deloitte for UNHCR in 2024, this contribution is expected to continue growing.
A key factor behind this success is how quickly refugees have integrated into Poland’s labor market. Despite facing psychological challenges due to the war in their home country and the responsibilities towards their families, many have found employment or started businesses shortly after arriving. This shift from relying on humanitarian aid and own savings to paying taxes and social insurance has made a difference in Poland’s economy. Today, between 225,000 and 350,000 Ukrainian refugees are working in Poland, directly contributing to public finances.
“Poland opened its arms to Ukrainian refugees fleeing war and brutality, demonstrating exemplary solidarity,” said Kevin J. Allen, UNHCR Representative in Poland. “But this new study shows that standing up for refugees was also good for business — and the Polish economy — because they were given the chance to work and engage in commerce.”
Migration: A Multifaceted Phenomenon
Migration isn’t just about refugees. It includes digital nomads, students studying abroad, and even professors visiting foreign universities. Migration is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon, and it’s essential to view it as such. A study by the International Labour Organization in 15 European countries found that a 1% increase in population through migration can boost a country’s GDP by up to 1.5%. Experts at McKinsey Global Institute argue that better economic and social integration of migrants could contribute up to $1 trillion to the global economy.
Migration benefits not only the country receiving migrants but also the countries migrants leave behind. Money sent back home often exceeds foreign aid, and children of migrant families are more likely to complete primary education and pursue further studies. Migrants who return to their home countries tend to engage more in social and political matters. In 2022, migrants sent $831 billion back to their countries of origin, which shows the far-reaching impact of migration.
Migrants as a Solution to Poland’s Demographic Challenges
Poland’s demographic future is becoming a critical concern. The country’s population is predicted to shrink by 8 million in the coming years, with rural areas losing as much as 25% of their populations. This will result in an aging population and a shrinking workforce. In this context, Gaia Vince, author of The Nomad Century, makes a compelling point: “The problem is not that too many people are arriving, but that not enough are coming.”
The problem is not that too many people are arriving, but that not enough are coming. – Gaia Vince
The Economic Contribution of Ukrainian Migrants to Poland’s Budget
In 2022, taxes paid by Ukrainian migrants amounted to 10-14 billion PLN. By 2023, that number increased to 15-20 billion PLN, which is more than the initial aid provided by the Polish government to refugees. According to Deloitte consultants, these contributions will likely lead to a rise in Poland’s GDP by 0.9-1.35% in the long run. The secret to this success? The rapid integration of refugees into the labor market.
The secret to this success? The rapid integration of refugees into the labor market.
Lessons from Poland’s Experience: How to Manage Migration Effectively
Poland’s experience with Ukrainian refugees offers valuable lessons in migration management. The success in swiftly integrating migrants into the workforce has been a critical factor in maximizing their positive economic impact. It raises essential questions about how to manage migration efficiently and how both migrants and host countries can benefit from it. But fears or doubts might be valid, too, and it makes sense to discuss them openly, as proposed by Gaia Vince. Open discussions, free from misleading political correctness, could offer solutions to balance the needs of migrants and the countries that welcome them.
Risks for Countries That Reject Migration
Countries that turn away migrants may face economic consequences, too. In the UK, many citizens saw the influx of migrants from Poland, Bulgaria, and Romania as a threat to jobs, wages, and public services. Even though most studies actually show that migrants often contribute more in taxes than they consume in public services, negative rhetoric was supported by the media and drove the Brexit sentiments. Overwhelmed by news, and with only basic knowledge of how a country’s economic system works, many British developed a perception that migrants place excessive pressure on public services such as housing, healthcare, and education. In the years following Brexit, however, the UK has faced labor shortages in critical sectors like healthcare, agriculture, and construction. This has led to economic slowdowns, showing that turning away migrants has had a tangible, negative impact on the country’s economy.
Do Immigrants Burden the Economy or Benefit It?
The answer to this question is not straightforward. According to the Deloitte report, the economic success of immigration depends on how quickly migrants can enter the workforce legally. The benefits of migration include filling labor shortages in areas where local workers are scarce and the real financial contribution made through taxes from migrants’ wages.
The key to economic success: Quick Integration
A paradoxical conclusion is that providing generous social benefits to incoming migrants may, in some cases, discourage them from seeking employment, as seen in countries with strong welfare systems like Germany. If it is possible to live comfortably on state support, there may be less incentive to work.
The economic benefits of migration are clear — especially when migrants are integrated into the workforce quickly. Properly managing migration can result in a win-win situation, where migrants fill labor gaps, boost economic growth, and contribute to public finances. Whether intentional or not, Poland’s experience offers valuable lessons for other countries on how to make migration an asset for long-term economic development. The key is to foster a system that supports both migrants and the host country, ensuring that the benefits are mutual.
Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash
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